100+ variables. 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Bayesian updating. Jurisdiction-calibrated benchmarks. Every valuation runs through a rigorous 10-step pipeline grounded in statistical methodology.
Below is the complete mathematical framework. No black boxes.
Economic damages (medical bills, lost wages, future costs) are summed, then non-economic damages are calculated using severity multipliers applied to the economic total.
Base damages are reduced by how strong the plaintiff's case is on both fault and causation. Comparative negligence directly reduces the recoverable amount.
Jurisdiction multipliers capture state-level plaintiff friendliness. A 7-factor trial risk score weights venue, judge, jury, witnesses, documents, expert quality, and adverse events.
Low-probability, high-impact factors that can dramatically inflate case value. Multiple black swan factors compound multiplicatively.
Five discrete scenarios — Defense ($0), Low (40%), Mid (70%), High (100%), and Nuclear (250%) — each assigned a probability. The Expected Value is the probability-weighted sum.
10,000 simulated trials randomly sample from probability distributions for every key variable, producing a full distribution of outcomes rather than a single estimate.
Starting with case-type priors (historical base rates), the estimate shifts based on case-specific evidence. More data means the evidence weight increases and the prior matters less.
Procedural risks — summary judgment, appeal, and collection — each reduce the expected recovery. Settlement discounts reflect that ~95% of cases settle below full trial value.
Every valuation is calibrated against historical benchmarks — median verdicts, plaintiff win rates, and settlement rates from national verdict databases.
The pipeline produces a probability distribution — not just one number. You get a floor (P10), median (P50), ceiling (P90), Expected Value, and a settlement recommendation.
A moderate-severity rear-end collision in Miami-Dade County. Plaintiff has $150,000 in economic damages, 10% comparative negligence, and 85% liability strength. Here is how every step of the pipeline applies:
The final settlement recommendation ($171K) is 33% of the initial base damages ($525K). Each step of the pipeline applies real-world risk adjustments — liability uncertainty, jurisdiction effects, trial risk, procedural threats, and settlement norms — that sophisticated attorneys will recognize from their own practice.